Despite what many people either believe, or want to believe, not everything that happens in the world is caused by the United States or its President.
Ahmadinejad is not a CIA plant, pretending to bluster about Iran's right to nuclear weapons. Ahmadinejad is an Islamic freak, blustering about Iran's right to nuclear weapons.
Our man in Iran would be saying the same things with a Democrat Congress and John Kerry in the White House.
I would strongly support President Kerry's decision to launch a premptive attack against Iran, before it has the capability to build nuclear weapons. It is the least-worst of several bad options.
What are the options? We can wait. We can encourage an insurgency to overthrow the regime. We can assassinate Ahmadinejad. Israel can launch the attack. We can sanction trade. We can freeze assets. We can restrict travel of key diplomats. We can hope that they aren't really able to do it. Let's check the consequences.
We can wait. The appeasment option. It didn't work well in 1938. Hitler appeared very threatening, but the powers who could have defeated him looked away. Ahmadinejad probably means what he says when he declared that Israel should be wiped off the map. Personally, I'm taking him seriously on that threat. If we wait until he is actually able to do it (remember, Israel is not a very large country), then I think history would show this to be a poor choice of the available options.
We can encourage an insurgency to overthrow the regime. This is by far the most preferable option. And it is possible. The son of the former Shah of Iran (who was very friendly to the United States) has said that he has been working on a coup. He requested that the United States wait until after this summer to allow his plan a chance. The Shah's son has alligned himself with several resistance groups inside Iran and has arranged networks to provide them with material support. His plan is to create demonstrations on huge scales, shutting down all economic activity. When the mullahs' forces enter to restore order, the civil war will begin. Allah bless you, son of the Shah.
We can assassinate Ahmadinejad. We should do this regardless. However, it won't help. He is just another member of a crazy cult (that Ayatollah Khomeini criminalized) . When he goes, there will be another. We may not be so fortunate to get one who speaks so openly of his intentions, but the intentions will be the same: Create chaos to open the way for the 12th Imam. When the 12th Imam comes, Islamic justice will be served upon the world.
Israel can launch the attack. Maybe. This isn't Osirak. When Israel took out the Iraqi nuclear facility in the 1980's, it was one plant above ground. Iran has multiple facilities and they are all underground. Plus Iran is further from Israel, restricting the range of its bombers. Israel could possibly do it, but not without help from the United States. If we are going to help, then why the hell not actually HELP. Israel can't do it alone. We either attack Iran or forget about anyone else attacking Iran.
We can sanction trade. Out of the question. Nothing will bring the world closer to World War III than cutting off trade with Iran. This is not in the United States' best interest. Iran supplies too much of the world oil supply, which is already too little. This option is not possible.
We can freeze assets. This has already begun. At least, from the Iranian side. They have been pulling in funds from foreign banks and buying gold. The mullahs know this one is coming and they are already ready for it.
We can restrict travel on key diplomats. This is a legitmate option. However, I have no idea what good it will do. The Iranian's don't exactly play by the rules and I don't think that a cancelled visa will keep meetings between Tehran and Damascus from occuring. I actually like to know that Iran sent diplomats to meet with representatives from Hamas, Hezbollah and Islamic Jihad. It helps me to remember which side our enemy is on.
We can hope that they really aren't able to do it. This one was good in the '70's. Nuclear technology is now over 60 years old. There are a lot of unemployed Russian scientists looking for work. Iran will be able to build nuclear weapons.
This brings us to the original option. A premptive strike. What is the most likely scenario any of these other options has brought us? The destruction of Israel. A civil war. A meaningless assassination. A futile attack. An economic nightmare. A freeze on assets and a restriction on travel.
Nothing has addressed the problem. The Islamic fascists in charge of Iran must be forcibly removed from office. This will not only eradicate the enemy who began the Islamic War in 1979, but it will send a strong message to any other country interested in hosting future enemies.
An airstrike on Iran will accomplish many things. It will erode Iran's ability to build nuclear weapons. It will destroy its navy, before Iran's navy is able to blocade the straights. It will neutralize the Revolutionary Guard, giving the resistance a fighting chance in a civil war.
An airstrike on Iran is the only present option that shows any possibility for a favorable outcome.
Tuesday May 9, 2006 - 09:54pm (MDT)