Tuesday, June 10, 2008

Is it Worth a War?

It really isn’t a question of whether the United States is going to fight a war against Iran. It’s a question of when. Should Iran be confronted before or after it gets nuclear weapons? The only reason to think the answer is after, is if you believe Iran won’t use its nuclear weapons offensively. That’s a big risk to take.

Iran has been at war with the United States for almost 30 years. Terrorist groups sponsored by Iran killed more Americans than any other set of groups until September 11th. Iranian weapons have killed more than 10% of our troops in Iraq. Iranian intervention in Iraq has killed an incalculable percentage of US soldiers. Iran is at war with the US.

The Iranians and most of their Muslim allies, have a seemingly unending supply of suicide bombers. There are countless people willing to strap TNT across their chests for the chance to kill a dozen or so infidels. How long is the line to kill a million people in Tel Aviv, London or New York?

The current regime of Iran, led by Ayatollah Khamenei and his mouthpiece President Ahmadinejad, openly profess their desire to destroy Israel. They believe in a religion that teaches Islamic Justice will be served upon the world only after a time of crisis for Islam. These guys want to start World War III.

The Iranian regime is not popular. The mullahs have killed and imprisoned tens of thousands of people. Some people think George Bush is overboard.

The resistance in Iran is about 90% of the population. There are divergent groups, but they all hate the mullahs. Post-Islamic Revolution Iran will be a much friendlier place than the current Iran. It will resemble the freed people of Eastern Europe after the Cold War more than the insurgency in Iraq. When the Revolutionary Guard loses control of security, the Islamic Revolution in Iran will be over.

This can happen before or after a million people die.

World War II, which killed 100 million people, could have been stopped with minimal casualties. The turning point was the occupation of the Rhineland. Hitler sent 3 brigades, less than a Division, into an area declared off-limits by the Versailles Treaty that ended World War I. The French had 40 Divisions in the general area and could have sent Hitlers’ forces running. Hitler gave his generals orders to retreat if the French army crossed the Rhine. The German High Command had plans to replace Hitler after his embarrassment in the Rhineland. Hitler said in his diary, “we would have run back to Germany with our tails between our legs”, referring to the German response if France had engaged the battle.

However, the French didn’t engage the battle and Hitler was emboldened. He referred to his enemies later in his diary as “little worms”. Hitler now knew his enemies wouldn’t stop him and proceeded to launch the war he predicted he would launch in his book. The rest is unfortunate history.

Iran has sent its signals. It supports the militias of Iraq, it harbors al-Qaeda leaders, it owns Hezbollah and it’s buying off Hamas. Iran controls Syrian politics and is increasingly influential in Lebanon. Iran wants to destroy Israel. It now surrounds Israel. If Iran gets a nuclear bomb, it will be detonated in Israel. Why should we wait for this to happen?

If your enemy says he want to kill you, you should probably believe him. Just to be safe. Iran has not hidden its intentions. Iran only lacks the capability to kill everyone on its list. Iran is getting very close to building nuclear weapons. Every country that went nuclear did so earlier than the “intelligence” industry thought it possible. The Intelligence estimates at this time are around 2-3 years. That may mean tomorrow.

If we don’t confront Iran now, why would we confront them after they successfully test a nuke? Iran would then own half of the Middle East. Iran would be in a position to own it all.

We’re at war whether we want to believe it or not. Iran is enemy number one. Iran can be defeated right now in a Gulf War type of battle, or it can be defeated later in a Dr. Strangelove type of battle.

Let’s just roll.