Victory in Iraq

As there will be no formal declaration of Victory in Iraq; today, November 22, 2008 is as good as any to mark the unofficial formal declaration of Victory in Iraq.

I disclose, this isn’t my idea. It was suggested on one of the blogs I read and I concur with the message. There will be no official pronouncement from the White House. There will definitely be no official pronouncement from Congress. There will absolutely never be any official pronouncement from the enemy. So why not pronounce it unofficially and make it as real as it will ever be? By any measure of victory, this war is over.

The casualty rate of American soldiers in Iraq has fallen far below the murder rate of ordinary American citizens in several American cities. It is safer to be a US soldier in Iraq than it is to be a US citizen in Detroit, Miami or Washington DC.

The Iraqis themselves have held multiple democratic elections and have a functioning, democratically elected, government. There are still major disagreements, but in general the Iraqi government is more united than Republicans and Democrats in the United States. They may not be perfect, but they are closer to reconciliation than our own government. I think you have to call that one a win.

The Iraqi army has stood up to and defeated militias that attempted to foment civil war. The Iraqi army has actually never lost a battle. There are still improvements to be made before the Iraqis can confidently go to battle without American fire-power waiting in reserve, but the Iraqis have proven that they don’t always need American support. The enemies of Iraq have proven that they can either flee the battlefield or get captured or killed. I think that’s another win.

The Iraqi army is not yet able to defend the country from foreign invasion. However, this was never a criterion for victory. Who would want to invade Iraq anyway? Post-Sadaam, that is. There is only one Iraqi neighbor I can think of, and if Iran chose to invade I would hope that allies of Iraq, including the United States, would come to her rescue. At some point, Iraq will be a fully self-sufficient entity, but the fact that the US destroyed its military in the initial invasion shouldn’t be a detriment to measuring success in the reconstruction. Besides, how much military power do we really want for Muslim governments in the Middle East?

American troops still remain in Iraq, and as John McCain once said, they may remain there for another 100 years. However, American troops still remain in Germany, Japan, South Korea and several other former hot-spots. Troop presence is more a matter of foreign policy than a measurement of victory. If the anti-American left, whom Obama courted in the primaries, really want the troops to come home, it can be done now without having an aura of surrender. I expect the anti-American left will be quite disappointed when Obama the politician rethinks his campaign rhetoric now that he has actual responsibility.

Congratulations are due to all of the military for its success under very difficult conditions. Also thanks are owed to the military families for the sacrifices and hardships they endured, especially when so much of their own country did not appear to be on their own side. President Bush deserves enormous credit, which history will grant him, for his unwavering vision under an unprecedented political assault during a time of war. Finally, General Petraeus deserves the nations’ gratitude for making the critical change in tactics that led to the successful prosecution of the war. As history will look favorably upon President Bush, General Petraeus will also be seen one day as the Grant, Pershing or Patton of this generation.

Congratulations America on winning another war.

Election Prediction

It’s that time again and I intend to do better than in 2006. I don’t know if I will though, because I still believe the same thing now as I did then. I believe the polls are wrong. All of the warning signs were there 2 years ago that the Republicans would lose the House and Senate. The same signs exist today that Obama will be the next President of the United States.

I actually do believe that Republicans will lose more seats in the House and Senate this year. I don’t really have a feel for how many, because I don’t keep up on micro-politics. However, there is a feeling of exhaustion with George Bush (I actually feel it too) and I think that will carry some Democrat challengers to victory. The fact that there are more Republican Senators defending their seats this year than Democrats makes that almost a foregone conclusion. Right or wrong…it is what it is.

The Presidency is another story.

There are certainly a great number of brain-washed Obamanites this year who have found their messiah. However, these people aren’t a huge percent of the voting population. There are definitely a great number of BDSers who want to punish Republicans and gloat about it later, but did any of these people NOT vote for John Kerry in the last election? Finally, there are those who have listened too much to the MSM and believe we need a Change. However, I don’t know how these people will actually vote, if they vote at all.

On the other hand…there are Bush supporters from 2004 who will turn out for the same reason as the last Presidential election. Win the War! There is a pretty clear distinction between the candidates this year on that issue. There are others who don’t want a nigger for President. (Sorry). I don’t think this is a big percent, but it is a factor. Finally, there are many who don’t want a Socialist for President. This isn’t getting the media attention it deserves (surprise!), but it really is a factor. Joe the Plumber struck a nerve when he got Obama to admit his plan to “spread the wealth around”.

The turnout for this election will be huge. Voters from both sides have reasons to actually vote. It comes down to simple math. The Black vote will heavily favor Obama, but so what? Blacks vote Democrat 9-1 as it is. How much does 9.5-.5 change anything? Women vote Democrat almost 60-40. How will they vote this year? There are some seriously pissed-off Hillary supporters (thank you PUMAs) who are actively campaigning for McCain. If women go 55-45 Democrat, that makes a HUGE difference. Plus, there are blue-collar men who normally vote Democrat, but see a difference between the effete and elite Obama, and the down-to-earth real American John McCain. (Not to mention the true all-American Sarah Palin). At least some of these voters will go McCain. (Reagan Democrats?).

I can see Obama winning a couple of states that Bush carried in 2004. However, I believe Obama will lose Pennsylvania (bitter gun-clinging, bible-thumpers) which more than off-sets a couple of fly-over country states. Ohio will be the decider. Although Obama’s campaign has been strenuously defrauding democracy through its thugs and ACORN operatives, I don’t think it will be enough.

McCain/Palin will win a close one. Pop some corn for a long Tuesday night.