Election Prediction
It’s that time again and I intend to do better than in 2006. I don’t know if I will though, because I still believe the same thing now as I did then. I believe the polls are wrong. All of the warning signs were there 2 years ago that the Republicans would lose the House and Senate. The same signs exist today that Obama will be the next President of the United States.
I actually do believe that Republicans will lose more seats in the House and Senate this year. I don’t really have a feel for how many, because I don’t keep up on micro-politics. However, there is a feeling of exhaustion with George Bush (I actually feel it too) and I think that will carry some Democrat challengers to victory. The fact that there are more Republican Senators defending their seats this year than Democrats makes that almost a foregone conclusion. Right or wrong…it is what it is.
The Presidency is another story.
There are certainly a great number of brain-washed Obamanites this year who have found their messiah. However, these people aren’t a huge percent of the voting population. There are definitely a great number of BDSers who want to punish Republicans and gloat about it later, but did any of these people NOT vote for John Kerry in the last election? Finally, there are those who have listened too much to the MSM and believe we need a Change. However, I don’t know how these people will actually vote, if they vote at all.
On the other hand…there are Bush supporters from 2004 who will turn out for the same reason as the last Presidential election. Win the War! There is a pretty clear distinction between the candidates this year on that issue. There are others who don’t want a nigger for President. (Sorry). I don’t think this is a big percent, but it is a factor. Finally, there are many who don’t want a Socialist for President. This isn’t getting the media attention it deserves (surprise!), but it really is a factor. Joe the Plumber struck a nerve when he got Obama to admit his plan to “spread the wealth around”.
The turnout for this election will be huge. Voters from both sides have reasons to actually vote. It comes down to simple math. The Black vote will heavily favor Obama, but so what? Blacks vote Democrat 9-1 as it is. How much does 9.5-.5 change anything? Women vote Democrat almost 60-40. How will they vote this year? There are some seriously pissed-off Hillary supporters (thank you PUMAs) who are actively campaigning for McCain. If women go 55-45 Democrat, that makes a HUGE difference. Plus, there are blue-collar men who normally vote Democrat, but see a difference between the effete and elite Obama, and the down-to-earth real American John McCain. (Not to mention the true all-American Sarah Palin). At least some of these voters will go McCain. (Reagan Democrats?).
I can see Obama winning a couple of states that Bush carried in 2004. However, I believe Obama will lose Pennsylvania (bitter gun-clinging, bible-thumpers) which more than off-sets a couple of fly-over country states. Ohio will be the decider. Although Obama’s campaign has been strenuously defrauding democracy through its thugs and ACORN operatives, I don’t think it will be enough.
McCain/Palin will win a close one. Pop some corn for a long Tuesday night.
I actually do believe that Republicans will lose more seats in the House and Senate this year. I don’t really have a feel for how many, because I don’t keep up on micro-politics. However, there is a feeling of exhaustion with George Bush (I actually feel it too) and I think that will carry some Democrat challengers to victory. The fact that there are more Republican Senators defending their seats this year than Democrats makes that almost a foregone conclusion. Right or wrong…it is what it is.
The Presidency is another story.
There are certainly a great number of brain-washed Obamanites this year who have found their messiah. However, these people aren’t a huge percent of the voting population. There are definitely a great number of BDSers who want to punish Republicans and gloat about it later, but did any of these people NOT vote for John Kerry in the last election? Finally, there are those who have listened too much to the MSM and believe we need a Change. However, I don’t know how these people will actually vote, if they vote at all.
On the other hand…there are Bush supporters from 2004 who will turn out for the same reason as the last Presidential election. Win the War! There is a pretty clear distinction between the candidates this year on that issue. There are others who don’t want a nigger for President. (Sorry). I don’t think this is a big percent, but it is a factor. Finally, there are many who don’t want a Socialist for President. This isn’t getting the media attention it deserves (surprise!), but it really is a factor. Joe the Plumber struck a nerve when he got Obama to admit his plan to “spread the wealth around”.
The turnout for this election will be huge. Voters from both sides have reasons to actually vote. It comes down to simple math. The Black vote will heavily favor Obama, but so what? Blacks vote Democrat 9-1 as it is. How much does 9.5-.5 change anything? Women vote Democrat almost 60-40. How will they vote this year? There are some seriously pissed-off Hillary supporters (thank you PUMAs) who are actively campaigning for McCain. If women go 55-45 Democrat, that makes a HUGE difference. Plus, there are blue-collar men who normally vote Democrat, but see a difference between the effete and elite Obama, and the down-to-earth real American John McCain. (Not to mention the true all-American Sarah Palin). At least some of these voters will go McCain. (Reagan Democrats?).
I can see Obama winning a couple of states that Bush carried in 2004. However, I believe Obama will lose Pennsylvania (bitter gun-clinging, bible-thumpers) which more than off-sets a couple of fly-over country states. Ohio will be the decider. Although Obama’s campaign has been strenuously defrauding democracy through its thugs and ACORN operatives, I don’t think it will be enough.
McCain/Palin will win a close one. Pop some corn for a long Tuesday night.
posted by BoiseJag at 8:33 AM
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