Amateur Analysis
I am not a political expert by choice. I try not to follow politics, because I become too irritated. However, I’m attracted to politics like a moth to a light bulb. My interests are in history and war. We are living within both. The ancient Chinese had a curse that said “may you live in the most interesting of times”. Pop some corn and turn on the TV. We are living in interesting times.
The elections on Tuesday matter. The world is watching. I’m not saying that the war will be won or lost on the upcoming election, but I am saying that a very interesting world now has its attention focused on the United States mid-term elections. I can’t help but follow this story.
3 days before the election, here is my prediction of the outcome…
First, the amateur analysis. The country is not happy about the war. There are various reasons why the country is not happy, but it’s hard to find anyone who is pleased with what is happening. This includes me. I was very pleased with the way we took Afghanistan. I was elated at the way we took Iraq, at least as far as removing the government from power. The combat phase of Iraqi Freedom ranks up there with the Six Day War in its military performance. The insurgency phase is a pain in the ass and I don’t think we are fighting it correctly. However, that doesn’t mean I want to cut and run. Like I said, there are various reasons for being unhappy with the war in Iraq, but being unhappy doesn’t necessarily mean you think the party in power should be replaced.
Other than the war, life in the United States is good. Taxes are lower than 6 years ago. Inflation is lower. Unemployment is lower. Wages are about the same, but wage increases always follow unemployment decreases. Interest rates have dropped to a 30 year low, risen a bit, and then stabilized. The rate is still lower than 6 years ago. The economy is rocking. The United States has created more jobs in the last 6 years than all of Western Europe combined.
How should each side play this scenario? The obvious answer is the party out of power should play up the war. This is what they are doing. However, is this smart?
People may be pissed about the war, but are they willing to vote their local Congressman or Senator out of office? Some will. Most won’t. At least, not for that reason alone. Elections in this Constitutional Republic are won district by district. National issues affect turnout, but local issues win elections.
The chairmen of the Republican and Democrat parties couldn’t be more different. Karl Rove and Howard Dean are a ridiculous mis-match. Rove is behind the scenes. He is a big-picture strategist. He is a great fund raiser. Dean is always on TV. He jumps on every issue of the day. He is not good (by Big League Politics standards) at raising money. The national committees are poorly matched.
The trend favors the Democrats. The party in power loses seats every mid-term election, except for Bush in 2002. That was the first time the party of the President gained seats in the House and Senate, during a mid-term election, in the last hundred years. Even Reagan couldn’t do it. Bush can’t do it again, but he showed that he can outperform history.
The historical gain is something like 12 House seats and 3 Senate seats gained for the party out of power. The Democrats need 15 and 6 to take control. The polls show they will get close to 20 and 8. I think they will get 8 and 4.
The Republicans will maintain control of the House and Senate and the rest of the world will gnaw at its wrist in disgust. Ha!
The elections on Tuesday matter. The world is watching. I’m not saying that the war will be won or lost on the upcoming election, but I am saying that a very interesting world now has its attention focused on the United States mid-term elections. I can’t help but follow this story.
3 days before the election, here is my prediction of the outcome…
First, the amateur analysis. The country is not happy about the war. There are various reasons why the country is not happy, but it’s hard to find anyone who is pleased with what is happening. This includes me. I was very pleased with the way we took Afghanistan. I was elated at the way we took Iraq, at least as far as removing the government from power. The combat phase of Iraqi Freedom ranks up there with the Six Day War in its military performance. The insurgency phase is a pain in the ass and I don’t think we are fighting it correctly. However, that doesn’t mean I want to cut and run. Like I said, there are various reasons for being unhappy with the war in Iraq, but being unhappy doesn’t necessarily mean you think the party in power should be replaced.
Other than the war, life in the United States is good. Taxes are lower than 6 years ago. Inflation is lower. Unemployment is lower. Wages are about the same, but wage increases always follow unemployment decreases. Interest rates have dropped to a 30 year low, risen a bit, and then stabilized. The rate is still lower than 6 years ago. The economy is rocking. The United States has created more jobs in the last 6 years than all of Western Europe combined.
How should each side play this scenario? The obvious answer is the party out of power should play up the war. This is what they are doing. However, is this smart?
People may be pissed about the war, but are they willing to vote their local Congressman or Senator out of office? Some will. Most won’t. At least, not for that reason alone. Elections in this Constitutional Republic are won district by district. National issues affect turnout, but local issues win elections.
The chairmen of the Republican and Democrat parties couldn’t be more different. Karl Rove and Howard Dean are a ridiculous mis-match. Rove is behind the scenes. He is a big-picture strategist. He is a great fund raiser. Dean is always on TV. He jumps on every issue of the day. He is not good (by Big League Politics standards) at raising money. The national committees are poorly matched.
The trend favors the Democrats. The party in power loses seats every mid-term election, except for Bush in 2002. That was the first time the party of the President gained seats in the House and Senate, during a mid-term election, in the last hundred years. Even Reagan couldn’t do it. Bush can’t do it again, but he showed that he can outperform history.
The historical gain is something like 12 House seats and 3 Senate seats gained for the party out of power. The Democrats need 15 and 6 to take control. The polls show they will get close to 20 and 8. I think they will get 8 and 4.
The Republicans will maintain control of the House and Senate and the rest of the world will gnaw at its wrist in disgust. Ha!
posted by BoiseJag at 1:57 PM
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